Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 15.786823 19.157144 22.907413 27.366523 32.499494 38.198321 44.978211
2025-05-18 10.623858 14.890714 20.178773 27.109873 35.841381 46.357589 59.850506
2025-05-25 7.573817 11.957156 17.880842 26.249596 37.519052 51.903284 71.348164
2025-06-01 5.772981 10.126004 16.465693 26.000358 39.551090 57.655784 83.132635
2025-06-08 4.300856 8.376209 14.759191 24.941680 40.146383 61.309915 92.161040
2025-06-15 3.604534 7.670277 14.433804 25.748252 43.313763 68.548855 106.335726
2025-06-22 2.786430 6.545376 13.224388 24.977369 43.979498 72.177876 115.563030
2025-06-29 2.401160 6.122634 13.099196 25.879207 47.205509 79.649552 130.603481
2025-07-06 1.782862 5.064891 11.658007 24.362232 46.405943 80.971023 136.614024
2025-07-13 1.560046 4.797979 11.633985 25.282736 49.611855 88.553697 152.293901
2025-07-20 1.352520 4.509505 11.513901 25.994510 52.486736 95.732797 167.642380
2025-07-27 1.168242 4.226004 11.352532 26.593440 55.181288 102.727366 182.968945
2025-08-03 0.975335 3.889122 11.082709 27.076807 57.935797 110.341289 200.251278
2025-08-10 0.768844 3.439928 10.487310 26.858420 59.448658 116.074128 214.975656
2025-08-17 0.575126 2.937443 9.650183 26.006274 59.674405 119.601528 226.243136
2025-08-24 0.449044 2.598651 9.136214 25.758978 60.995111 125.037984 240.845492
2025-08-31 0.324315 2.186215 8.321985 24.708257 60.616327 127.423600 250.395028
2025-09-07 0.276739 2.071275 8.309221 25.508765 64.009134 136.707514 272.025008
2025-09-14 0.202384 1.774623 7.684617 24.743678 64.095298 139.956745 283.370195
2025-09-21 0.174428 1.699340 7.727716 25.638738 67.736019 149.933623 306.808864
2025-09-28 0.115446 1.381777 6.886061 24.133190 66.068388 149.847471 312.470633
2025-10-05 0.099656 1.331486 6.953424 25.046745 69.785164 160.175677 337.086430
2025-10-12 0.083880 1.265241 6.946205 25.753178 73.080643 169.825841 360.796675